Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 4.249384 5.088237 6.022489 7.136255 8.423785 9.861212 11.583056
2025-03-16 3.071443 4.151108 5.478704 7.215056 9.408032 12.066158 15.509981
2025-03-23 2.313933 3.473153 5.024018 7.214434 10.185966 14.029141 19.318970
2025-03-30 1.716832 2.839062 4.460162 6.911671 10.450761 15.288105 22.292530
2025-04-06 1.372493 2.474219 4.176633 6.907015 11.061162 17.005792 25.978013
2025-04-13 1.106760 2.164678 3.905397 6.851627 11.551167 18.555734 29.519035
2025-04-20 0.979822 2.055377 3.921985 7.226508 12.706610 21.149333 34.755464
2025-04-27 0.854483 1.919445 3.865394 7.461149 13.646517 23.473812 39.744084
2025-05-04 0.766966 1.835188 3.881094 7.810277 14.793072 26.192623 45.516160
2025-05-11 0.647433 1.659093 3.697019 7.774227 15.271718 27.861253 49.726374
2025-05-18 0.524248 1.445614 3.403381 7.490778 15.276030 28.729918 52.677452
2025-05-25 0.421581 1.252631 3.115852 7.173836 15.174090 29.390568 55.301354
2025-06-01 0.359752 1.145313 2.995030 7.180055 15.688107 31.183975 60.018577
2025-06-08 0.309114 1.053792 2.893490 7.212143 16.253877 33.111459 65.099853
2025-06-15 0.263465 0.963124 2.777339 7.195441 16.717523 34.881499 70.010773
2025-06-22 0.210614 0.834826 2.545574 6.888070 16.555361 35.469718 72.824233
2025-06-29 0.180388 0.766867 2.452007 6.881615 17.012932 37.255272 77.926701
2025-07-06 0.152907 0.698753 2.344561 6.825787 17.355321 38.834996 82.730809
2025-07-13 0.144049 0.693725 2.409406 7.199228 18.669880 42.412518 91.510255
2025-07-20 0.131386 0.670575 2.418552 7.433027 19.690594 45.461642 99.432224
2025-07-27 0.123152 0.662225 2.469772 7.780993 20.999424 49.171825 108.822888
2025-08-03 0.105895 0.610574 2.379975 7.745051 21.413369 51.062485 114.734695
2025-08-10 0.085836 0.537928 2.208457 7.462521 21.214201 51.653047 118.084967